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Journal Article
Fact, Fiction, and Factor Investing: Practical Applications
September 1, 2023
This piece distills the central concepts and practical takeaways of our Fact, Fiction, and Factor Investing article, which examined many claims about factor investing, referencing an extensive academic literature and performing simple, yet powerful, analysis to address those claims.
Working Paper
What Can Betting Markets Tell Us About Investor Preferences and Beliefs? Implications for Low Risk Anomalies
May 13, 2021
We relate the low risk anomaly in financial markets to the Favorite-Longshot Bias in betting markets and provide novel evidence to both anomalies. Synthesizing the evidence, we study the joint implications from the two settings for a unifying explanation. Rational theories of risk-averse investors with homogeneous beliefs cannot explain the cross-sectional relationship between diversifiable risk and return in betting markets. Rather, we appeal to models of non-traditional preferences or heterogeneous beliefs.
Working Paper
Understanding Momentum and Reversals
June 9, 2020
Stock momentum, long-term reversal, and other past return characteristics that predict future returns also predict future realized betas, suggesting these characteristics capture time-varying risk compensation.
Journal Article
Value and Interest Rates: Are Rates to Blame for Value’s Torments?
May 22, 2020
Some have blamed the interest rate environment for value stocks’ underperformance of growth stocks from 2017 to early 2020, as well as the stretch of lackluster performance for some value factors since Global Financial Crisis. We find the performance of value is not easily assessed based on the interest rate environment, and that factor timing strategies based on interest rate-related signals are likely to perform poorly.
Working Paper
Trading Costs
August 23, 2018
Using live trade data from a large institutional money manager over a 19-year period, we find actual trading costs to be an order of magnitude smaller than previous studies suggest.
Journal Article
Fact, Fiction, and the Size Effect
May 14, 2018
Despite its long and illustrious history, much confusion about the size effect remains. We examine common claims about the size effect and seek to clarify some of the misunderstanding surrounding it.
Working Paper
Implementing Momentum: What Have We Learned?
December 26, 2017
We use seven years of live data to evaluate the implementability of momentum investing.
Working Paper
Decision-Making Under the Gambler's Fallacy
March 11, 2015
Reviewing decisions made by judges, loan officers and umpires in high-stakes contexts, we find them to be most consistent with the "gambler's fallacy"—meaning they were based as much on their own previous decisions as on the facts they were weighing.
Journal Article
Size Matters, If You Control Your Junk
January 22, 2015
When it comes to equity investing, size matters—and in a bigger way than once thought—but only when controlling for junk. We examine seven challenges that have been hurled at the size effect and dismantle each one by controlling for a firm's quality.
Journal Article
Fact, Fiction and Momentum Investing
September 23, 2014
Momentum is the phenomenon that securities that have performed well relative to peers (winners) on average continue to outperform, and securities that have performed relatively poorly (losers) tend to continue to underperform.